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Posts Tagged Lacey Realtor

August 2010 Jobs Report Pushes Mortgage Rates Higher

Sep 3

Posted by Real Estate Agent Referral Service - Thurston County Washington in Daily Real Estate & Mortgage News, Jobs | No Comments

Net Job Gains Sept 2008-August 2010On the first Friday of each month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases Non-Farm Payrolls data for the month prior. 

The data is more commonly called “the jobs report” and it’s a major factor in setting mortgage rates for residents of Washington State and homeowners everywhere. Especially today, considering the economy.

This is because, although it’s believed that the recession of 2009 is over, there’s emerging talk of new recession starting.

Support for the argument is mixed:

  1. Job growth has been slow, but planned layoffs touch a 10-year low
  2. Consumer confidence is down, but beating expectations
  3. Consumer spending is weak, but not declining

In other words, the economy could go in either direction in the latter half of 2010 and the jobs market may be the key. More working Americans means more paychecks earned, more taxes paid, and more money spent; plus, the confidence to purchase a “big ticket” items such as a home.

Jobs growth can provide tremendous support for housing, too.

Today, though, jobs growth was “fair”. According to the government, 54,000 jobs were lost in August, but that reflects the departure of 114,000 Census workers.  The private sector (i.e. non-government jobs), by contrast, added 67,000. 

In addition, net new jobs was revised higher for June and July by a total of 123,000.  That’s a good-sized number, too.

Right now, Wall Street is reacting with enthusiasm, bidding up stocks at the expense of bonds — including mortgage-backed bonds.  This is causing mortgage rates to rise.  Rates should be higher by about 1/8 percent this morning.

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Case-Shiller Posts 16th Straight Month Of Home Price Improvement

Sep 1

Posted by Real Estate Agent Referral Service - Thurston County Washington in Case-Shiller Index, Daily Real Estate & Mortgage News, Existing Home Sales, New Home Sales, Pending Home Sales | No Comments

Case-Shiller Change In Home Values May-June 2010

According to the Standard & Poors Case-Shiller Index, home values rose 5 percent in June versus the month prior, and 4 percent from a year earlier.  It’s the 16th consecutive month in which Case-Shiller reported an increase in home values and the third straight month of outstanding results.

That said, homeowners and home buyers in Olympia would do well to temper Case-Shiller enthusiasm. The June figures are issued on 60-day delay and, over the last 60 days, housing data has been lackluster at best.

Stories like these highlight a key weakness of the Case-Shiller Index — it’s out of date as soon as it’s published. Because of this, the Case-Shiller Index relevance to everyday Americans is muted. People don’t buy homes in the “60 days ago” real estate market, after all.

June is ancient real estate history to buyers and sellers in Pierce County.

However, the Case-Shiller Index does have its place. As the most widely-followed, private-sector housing tracker, the index is used to help make policy decisions and to shape Wall Street’s expectations of the economy. This means that a strong Case-Shiller reading can cause mortgage rates to rise, and a weak Case-Shiller reading can cause rates to fall.

Tuesday, mortgage rates fell.

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New Home Sales Drop In July — Just Like Existing Home Sales

Aug 26

Posted by Real Estate Agent Referral Service - Thurston County Washington in Daily Real Estate & Mortgage News, New Home Sales | No Comments

New Home Supply July 2009 - July 2010One day after the National Association of Realtors released the softest Existing Home Sales report since 1995, the U.S. Census Bureau released a similarly-weak New Home Sales report.

Americans bought just 276,000 newly-built homes in July. That marks the fewest units sold since the government started keeping records in 1963.

In addition, although new home inventory actually dropped 2,000 units in July, the slowing sales pace still managed to push the national supply higher by 1.1 months.  At July’s rate of sales, the nation’s new home inventory would be exhausted in just about 9 months.

None of this news should surprise you, though. It’s all been foreshadowed for weeks.

First, Single-Family Housing Starts have dropped in every month since April.  A “housing start” is a when a home starts construction and, because fewer homes are under construction, we should expect fewer homes to be sold.

Second, Building Permits are down.  The number of new permits peaked in March and have fallen 23 percent since.

And, lastly, home builder confidence ranks at its lowest levels since early-2009. A contributing factor in that pessimism is dwindling buyer foot traffic.

Regardless, there’s two sides to the story. Although the New Home Sales data looks bad for builders, it can be terrific  for you. This is because new homes are more likely to be discounted when the sales cycle favors buyers.

Coupled with ultra-low mortgage rates, the cost of buying a newly-built home in Tumwater may have just become cheaper.

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Mortgage Rates Make New Lows For The 9th Week In A Row

Aug 20

Posted by Real Estate Agent Referral Service - Thurston County Washington in Daily Real Estate & Mortgage News, Interest Rates, Mortgage Rates | No Comments

Freddie Mac mortgage rates (January - August 2010)

Another week, another new low for conforming mortgage rates.  In fact, this week marks the 9th time in a row it’s happened.

Mortgage rates are (again) at their lowest levels in history.

The data comes from the Freddie Mac, a government group and major loan securitizer for the U.S. mortgage market. Freddie Mac’s weekly survey is among the most widely-cited reports on mortgage rates and is the data used in home affordability models, among other statistics.

The 30-year fixed rate is averaging 4.42% nationally with an accompanying cost of 0.7 points. 1 point is equal to 1 percent of the loan size.  This week’s reported rate is lower by 0.02 percent from last week, and lower by 0.70 percent from one year ago.

On a region-by-region basis, though, “average” 30-year fixed mortgage rates are different.

  • Northeast : 4.44 with 0.6 points
  • Southeast : 4.44 with 0.8 points
  • N. Central : 4.42 with 0.4 points
  • Southeast : 4.46 with 0.5 points
  • West : 4.35 with 0.8 points

But this isn’t to say that mortgage pricing is better in, say, California as compared to Florida. Note that the West Region — with the lowest average rate — has the highest required points.  This is because mortgage rates and mortgage fees move in opposite directions.  The type of low-rate/high fee structure common in the West may be right for some home buyers and would-be refinancers, but may not be right for others.

What’s important to remember is that, as a rate-shopper in Washington State , it’s always your choice on how your loan is structured. Banks offer multiple set-ups — with or without points — to meet every applicant’s budget.

As mortgage rates continue to slide and touch new lows, it’s an excellent opportunity to see what your lender can do for you. Low rates won’t last forever.

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How Much Should You Expect To Pay In Mortgage Closing Costs?

Aug 19

Posted by Real Estate Agent Referral Service - Thurston County Washington in Budgeting | No Comments

Closing costs by state, 2010

How much does a mortgage cost? The answer depends on where you live. But no matter which your locale, chances are strong that you’ll pay more for a mortgage in 2010 as compared to 2009.

According to Bankrate.com and its annual Closing Cost Survey, a typical $200,000, purchase mortgage now carries an average $3,741 in closing costs — up nearly 37 percent from last year.

As defined by Bankrate.com, “closing costs” is defined as the sum of two numbers.  The first group is labeled “origination charges”, a category that includes such items as underwriting fees, application fees and processing fees.  These fees are paid directly to the loan originator’s company at the time of closing.

The second grouping of costs is labeled “third-party fees”.  Third-party fees include appraisals, credit reports, settlement fees and title searches — items paid in connection with the loan, but not paid to the lending bank or broker.

It’s unclear why closing costs appear to have escalated into 2010, but Bankrate.com suggest that recently-enacted federal lending laws are a culprit:

  1. The new law requires loan officers to be accountable to a Good Faith Estimate’s accuracy. Bankrate.com’s prior-year surveys may have been “understated”, therefore, because of a lack of accountability.
  2. The cost of federal compliance is high, and banks may be passing on compliance costs to consumers

To see the complete list of closing costs by state, including where Washington State ranks, visit the Bankrate.com website.

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What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : August 16, 2010

Aug 16

Posted by Real Estate Agent Referral Service - Thurston County Washington in Weekly Review | No Comments

Retail Sales (August 2008 - July 2010)Mortgage markets worsened last week, putting a pause on the mortgage rate rally that dates to mid-April. Mortgage rates rose across Washington State last week and home affordability suffered.

The Refi Boom remains in full effect, but rates are not as dazzling as they were a week ago.

It’s somewhat strange that mortgage rates rose last week given the heavy dose of negative-bending news.

Mortgage rates often to fall on such news, but last week, they rose. The biggest reason was weak demand on a new 30-year bond issuance from the government. In turn, that weakness spilled over into mortgage bonds, which pushed rates up. 

This week, mortgage rates could rise or fall — it depends on how new data influences market sentiment.

  • Monday :  Home builder confidence survey
  • Tuesday : Housing Starts and Building Permits; Producer Price Index
  • Thursday : Jobless claims; 2 Fed members make speeches

Keep a close eye on the housing-related data early in the week. It’s widely believed that housing will lead the economy forward so a rebound in home builder confidence, or a jump in building permits, for example, should push rates even higher. Weakness

In the meanwhile, if you haven’t spoken with your loan officer about a refinance, consider reaching out this week. Rates are lower than they’ve ever been in history and more people are getting financing than the news would have you believe. You can’t know until you ask so make that call today.

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How Big Is The Foreclosure Market? It Depends On Where You Live, Of Course.

Aug 12

Posted by Real Estate Agent Referral Service - Thurston County Washington in Foreclosures | No Comments

Foreclosure concentration, by state (July 2010)Foreclosure filings rose 4 percent nationwide last month versus June, according to foreclosure-tracking firm RealtyTrac.com. For the 17th straight month, total filings topped 300,000.

A foreclosure filing is defined as default notice, scheduled auction, or bank repossession.

As with most months, just a handful of states dominated foreclosure activity nationwide.

  • California : 14.9 percent of all activity
  • Florida : 11.6 percent of all activity
  • Arizona : 6.4 percent of all activity
  • Michigan : 6.2 percent of all activity
  • Georgia : 6.1 percent of all activity
  • Texas : 4.9 percent of all activity

Together, these 6 states represent just 30 percent of the overall U.S. population.

The other 44 states (and Washington D.C.) were home to the remaining 49.0%.

Despite this imbalance, though, in all markets, foreclosures and REO are making a profound impact on pricing and product. “Distressed” homes now represent 32 percent of the overall resale market nationwide, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

Buying a foreclosed home can make for a terrific “deal”, but buying in the REO market is decidedly different from buying a non-foreclosed property.

As 3 examples:

  1. Buying bank-owned homes can take 120 days to close.
  2. Foreclosures aren’t always listed for sale publicly. Some inventory is privately-held.
  3. Bank-owned homes are often sold “as is”. There may be defects that render the homes mortgage-ineligible.

If you have an interest in buying REO, consider talking with a real estate agent first. Even the negotiation process is different as compared to a non-distressed sale. It helps to have an experienced professional representing your interests.

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A Simple Explanation Of The Federal Reserve Statement (August 10, 2010 Edition)

Aug 10

Posted by Real Estate Agent Referral Service - Thurston County Washington in FOMC | No Comments

Putting the FOMC statement in plain EnglishToday, in its first meeting in 6 weeks, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-to-1 to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged. 

The Fed Fund Rate remains at a historical low, within a prescribed target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.

In its press release, the FOMC said that, since June, the pace of economic recovery “has slowed”. Household spending is increasing but remains restrained because of high levels of unemployment, falling home values, and restrictive credit.

Today’s statement shows less economic optimism as compared to the prior year’s worth of FOMC statements dating back to June 2009. The Fed is looking for growth to be “more modest in the near-term” than its previous expectations.

Weaknesses aside, the Fed highlighted strengths in the economy, too:

  1. Growth is ongoing on a national level
  2. Inflation levels remain exceedingly low
  3. Business spending is rising

As expected, the Fed re-affirmed its plan to hold the Fed Funds Rate near zero percent “for an extended period”.

There were no surprises in the Fed’s statement so, as a result, the mortgage market’s reaction to the release has been neutral. Mortgage rates in Washington State are unchanged this afternoon.

The FOMC’s next meeting is scheduled for September 21, 2010.

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Existing Home Sales Drop In June But Hint At Higher Price Tier Support

Jul 23

Posted by Real Estate Agent Referral Service - Thurston County Washington in Existing Home Sales | No Comments

Existing Home Supply (June 2009 - June 2010)Consistent with most post-home buyer tax credit housing news, the National Association of Realtors® says Existing Home Sales eased lower last month.

An “existing home” is a home that cannot be considered new construction.

The 5 percent drop in sales from May to June was expected, but a closer look at the month’s data reveals some interesting trends.

First, repeat buyers accounted for 44 percent of home resales in June, up from 40 percent in May. That’s a healthy increase for just 4 weeks’ time and the tax credit is a likely catalyst. First-timer buyers bought starter homes owned by former first-timers, who were then free to “move up” to larger, more expensive property.

Housing markets can be trickle-up and, not coincidentally, the jumbo/luxury housing market is now in the midst of rebound.

Second, June’s “distressed sales” accounted for 32 percent of all home resales, up from 31 percent in May.

A figure like this hints at the large role foreclosures continue to play in a Lacey home buyer’s home search strategy.  And why not? The National Association of Realtors® suggests that distressed homes are sold at a 15 percent discount.

Lastly, take note that home inventories are rising. June’s 8.9 months of supply is the highest in 10 months. Excess supply leads home prices lower, all things equal.

Overall, the Existing Home Sales data from June is a mixed bag. There’s support for the middle- and upper-price tiers, but a growing overhang of supply. The market looks favorable for buyers given low mortgage rates and strong negotiation leverage.

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Housing Starts Ease 0.7 Percent In June — 7x Better Than The Headline Data

Jul 21

Posted by Real Estate Agent Referral Service - Thurston County Washington in Housing Starts | No Comments

Housing starts July 2008 - June 2010

Single-family Housing Starts eased lower last month, falling by 0.7 percent from May, or 3,000 units nationwide.

A “housing start” is a home on which construction has started.

June’s Housing Starts data is somewhat soft and may partially explain why home builder confidence dropped to its lowest level since April 2009, but for buyers and sellers in Lacey , the Housing Starts report is not nearly as bad as headlines say.

This is because when the press reports on Housing Starts, it doesn’t single out single-family homes. The press lumps every type of home into a single, giant reading. As a result, news outlets are reporting Housing Starts down 5 percent — a somewhat misleading figure.

The 5 percent figure is actually a combination of 3 separate housing types:

  1. Single-Family Housing Starts
  2. Multi-Unit Housing Starts (2-4 Units)
  3. Apartment Building Housing Starts (5 or more units)

But, single-family homes are what most Americans purchase. This is why the single-family starts data is more relevant than the combined figure commonly reported by the press. 2-4 units and apartment buildings are a different realm of buyer.

That said, though, we can’t even be sure that June’s Single-Family Housing Starts report is accurate. As noted in the Department of Commerce’s press release, the data’s margin of error is 10.7 percent which means the reported results are of “no confidence”.

In other words, there is no statistical evidence to prove the actual change was different from zero.

If Housing Starts did, in fact, drop in June, it will help to reduce the Pierce County housing inventory, which will provide support for local home values. For home sellers, this could be good news. Fewer homes for sale means less competition for buyers.

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