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Sagging Homebuilder Confidence Opens The Door For Good Deals

Jul 20

Posted by Real Estate Agent Referral Service - Thurston County Washington in Home Values, Homebuilders, Housing Starts, New Home Sales, Real Estate Investing, Statistics | No Comments

NAHB Housing Market Index July 2008-2010Builder confidence in the housing market slipped this month, according to the National Association of Homebuilders’ monthly Housing Market Index.

The Housing Market Index is actually a weighted composite of 3 separate surveys. One measures current single-family sales; one measures projected single-family sales; and one measures traffic of prospective buyers.

All three surveys were down in July:

  • Single-Family Sales : From 17 (June) to 15 (July)
  • Single-Family Project : From 22 (June) to 21 (July)
  • Buyer Foot Traffic : From 13 (June) to 10 (July)

The HMI’s July reading of 14 puts confidence at its lowest point since April 2009.

For home buyers in Olympia , a drop in builder confidence could create an opportunity for negotiation.

Remember, it wasn’t too long ago that most builders were flush with home inventory, unable to find willing buyers. To help move product at that time, builders dropped prices and offered incentives including free upgrades. If confidence continues to sag going forward, home purchase deals of that nature may return — especially as the foreclosure market gets larger.

See, in the past, builders’ main competition for buyers were the existing home sellers.  Today, builders compete with the existing home sellers and the banks with REO. 

It’s a terrific time to be a home buyer, in other words — sellers are fighting for you. It’s no wonder sellers have little leverage anymore. Couple that with all-time low mortgage rates and affordability for homes is at an all-time high.

If you’re planning to buy a home later this year, you may want to consider moving up your time frame. The market looks ripe for good deals this summer.

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The Year Is Half-Over. How Did The Housing Experts Fare On Their Predictions?

Jul 1

Posted by Real Estate Agent Referral Service - Thurston County Washington in Daily Real Estate & Mortgage News, Existing Home Sales, Statistics | No Comments

Housing and mortgage rate forecastsAs 2009 was ending, the “experts” were busy making forecasts about the U.S. economy and what to expect in 2010.

With respect to the housing markets, two predictions were made again and again:

  1. Home prices would fall in the first half of 2010
  2. Mortgage rates would be higher in 2010

Well, it’s July 1 and the year is half-over.  Both predictions are proving to be incorrect. Home values are rising in most markets and mortgage rates are down. Way down. 

It reminds us that economists are much more skilled with analysis of the past versus predictions of the future.

A pile of data can only get you so far.

Think of Lacey housing market predictions like watching a local weather forecast. A meteorologist can look at the radar and tell you that rain is coming, but it’s never with 100% certainty.  There is always a chance of change.

The housing market is the same way.  Just as the U.S. economy is unpredictable, so are housing prices, and so are mortgage rates. 

Therefore, when you have a personal finance decision to make, evaluate your options based on the information at hand today rather than an educated guess about the future. The future, after all, is subject to change — despite what the experts forecast.

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Foreclosures Per Capita | February 2010

Mar 11

Posted by Real Estate Agent Referral Service - Thurston County Washington in Foreclosures, Statistics | No Comments

Foreclsoures Per Capita February 2010

According to foreclosure-tracking firm RealtyTrac, foreclosure filings topped 300,000 for the 12th straight month last month as 1 in every 418 U.S. homes received a foreclosure filing.

It’s a small improvement from January and a just 6 percent increase over February 2009.

On a per-capita basis, foreclosure density varied by state:

  • Nevada : 1 foreclosure filing per 102 homes
  • Florida : 1 foreclosure filing per 163 homes
  • Arizona : 1 foreclosure filing per 163 homes
  • California : 1 foreclosure filing per 195 homes

Also, as in January 2010, foreclosures across the country were concentrated. 10 states beat the national Foreclosure Per Capita average; 40 states fell below. Like everything else is real estate, it seems, foreclosures are local.

For today’s Tumwater home buyers, foreclosures represent an interesting opportunity. 

Homes bought in various stages of foreclosure are often less expensive than other, non-foreclosure homes. It’s one reason why distressed home sales account for 38 percent of all resales. However, less expensive doesn’t always mean less costly.  A foreclosed home may be in various stages of disrepair and they’re often sold as-is, as policy.

Buying new or used in Pierce County can be cheaper than buying broken-down.

Therefore, if you’re in the market for a bank-owned home, make sure you know what you’re buying before you sign a contract. Have qualified professionals review and inspect the property, as needed. Damage to pipes or the property’s structure, for example, may not be so obvious on a walk-though and you’ll want to know about it before you buy.

Also, foreclosed homes are federal tax credit-eligible. Buyers must be under contract by April 30, 2010 and closed by June 30, 2010.

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Pending Home Sales Drag In January, But Should Rebound For Spring

Mar 5

Posted by Real Estate Agent Referral Service - Thurston County Washington in Existing Home Sales, Home Price Index, Housing Starts, New Home Sales, Pending Home Sales, Real Estate Investing, Statistics | No Comments

Pending Home Sales (July 2008-Jan 2010)

Fewer homes went under contract in January as the housing market continues to limp through the winter months.

According to the National Association of Realtors®, the Pending Home Sales Index fell to its lowest level in 3 quarters this January. By contrast, in October 2009, the index had touched a 3-year high.

The Pending Home Sales Index measures the number of homes that have gone under contract to sell, but have yet to close nationwide. It’s compiled using data from more than 100 regional listing services and 60-plus brokerages  — the sample set encompasses 20 percent of all home resales in a given month.

Economists have come to rely on the Pending Home Sales Index because of its high correlation to actual home sales. 80% of all home marked “pending” close within 60 days. Many of the rest close within 120.

Therefore, when we see Pending Home Sales show weakness like it did in January, we can infer that home resales will remain weak through the spring.

But will they really?

  1. Fewer sales should drag down home prices, bringing more buyers into the market
  2. Mortgage rates are still very low, but are poised to rise in just a few weeks
  3. The home buyer tax credit requires buyers to be in contract by April 30, 2010

In other words, there’s a confluence of factors that could lead to a rush of sales in Lacey and around the country over the next two months, reversing the housing market’s recent momentum.

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Tying Friday’s Jobs Report To Rising Mortgage Rates

Mar 4

Posted by Real Estate Agent Referral Service - Thurston County Washington in Daily Real Estate & Mortgage News, Interest Rates, Jobs, Statistics | No Comments

Unemployment Rate 2008-2010Conforming and FHA mortgage rates in Washington State have improved over the last 10 days, but that could all change this Friday with the release of February’s Non-Farm Payrolls report.

Non-Farm Payrolls is the official name of the government’s monthly jobs report and, given the fragile state of the U.S. economy, Wall Street will be watching it closely.

Mortgage rates could spike come Friday morning.

Jobs are an important part of the nation’s recovery. Among other concerns, unemployed Americans don’t spend as much money on goods and services, and are more likely to default on a mortgage. This retards economic growth and increases the potential for foreclosures.

When jobs numbers worsen, therefore, it follows that economic projections worsen, too.

Poor employment figures draw money away from the stock markets and into less-risky bond markets, including mortgage-backed bonds.  Mortgage rates improve as a result. Conversely, when jobs numbers improve, stock markets gain and bond markets worsen.

Analysts expect that a net 30,000 jobs were lost in February.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics press release hits at 8:30 A.M. ET, roughly an hour before Friday’s mortgage pricing will be available to consumers. If you’re worried about rates rising on the heels of a strong jobs report, therefore, be sure to get your rate lock in today instead. Once Friday gets here, it may be too late.

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The Home Price Index Shows Some Regions Up, Some Regions Down

Feb 26

Posted by Real Estate Agent Referral Service - Thurston County Washington in Daily Real Estate & Mortgage News, Existing Home Sales, Home Price Index, New Home Sales, Pending Home Sales, Statistics | No Comments

Monthly changes in Home Price Index Since April 2007

Earlier this week, the private-sector Case-Shiller Index showed home prices slightly lower between November and December.  Thursday, the public-sector Home Price Index showed the same.

Publishing on a 2-month lag, the Federal Home Finance Agency said home prices fell by 1.6 percent nationally in December.  And that’s an average, of course.  Some regions performed well in December as compared to November, others didn’t.

  • Values in the Middle Atlantic states improved slightly
  • Values in New England were essentially unchanged
  • Values in the Mountain states sagged, down 3.5%

These aren’t just footnotes. They’re an important piece toward understanding what national real estate statistics really mean. In short, “national statistics” are just a compilation of a bunch of local statistics.

For example, if we dig deeper into the FHFA Home Price Index 70-page report, we find that cities like Terre Haute, IN, Buffalo, NY, and Amarillo, TX posted year-over-year home price gains. You won’t see that in a “national” report.

Furthermore, it’s a sure bet that those same cities, you could find neighborhoods that are thriving, and others that are not.  Just because the city shows higher home values overall, it won’t necessarily be the case for every home in the city.

Every street in every neighborhood of every town in America has its own “local real estate market” and, in the end, that’s what should be most important to today’s buyers and sellers.  National data helps identify trends and shape government policy but, to the layperson, it’s somewhat irrelevant.

So, when you need to know whether your home in Tumwater is gaining or losing value, you can’t look at the national data.  You have to look at your block — what’s selling and not selling — and start your valuations from there.

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December 2009 Case-Shiller Data Shows Battered Markets In Bona Fide Recovery

Feb 24

Posted by Real Estate Agent Referral Service - Thurston County Washington in Case-Shiller Index, Existing Home Sales, Home Price Index, Pending Home Sales, Statistics | No Comments

Case-Shiller Monthly Change Nov 2009-Dec 2009

Using data compiled in December, Standard & Poors released its Case-Shiller Index Tuesday.  The report shows home prices down just 2.5% on an annual basis, a figure much lower than the 8.7% annual drop reported after Q3.

According to Case-Shiller representatives, the housing market is “in better shape than it was this time last year”, but some of the summer’s momentum has been lost. 15 of 20 tracked markets declined in value between November and December 2009.

Meanwhile, it’s interesting to note the 5 markets that didn’t decline — Detroit, Los Angeles, Las Vegas, Phoenix and San Diego.  Each of these metro regions were among the hardest hit nationwide when home prices first broke.  Now, they’re leading the pack in price recovery.

For some real estate investors, that’s a positive signal.  But we also have to consider the Case-Shiller Index’s flaws because they’re big ones.

As examples:

  1. Case-Shiller data is reported on a 2-month lag
  2. The Case-Shiller sample set includes just 20 U.S. cities
  3. There’s no “national real estate market” — real estate is local

That said, the Case-Shiller Index is still important. As the most widely-used private sector housing index, Case-Shiller helps to identify broader housing trends and many people believe housing is a key element in the economic recovery.

If the markets that led the housing decline will lead the housing resurgence, December’s data shows that full recovery is right around the corner.

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Budget Tips For Today’s Family

Feb 23

Posted by Real Estate Agent Referral Service - Thurston County Washington in Mortgage Guidelines, Real Estate Definitions, Statistics | No Comments

 
If you are in charge of creating the family budget, chances are, you’ve had the unfortunate experience of having a brilliant budget plan that isn’t executed well. This happens to many families and couples, and with a little attitude tweaking, you can solicit the help of your family in making your budget work.Create a family budget vision. Talk to your spouse and children about whatever budgetary constraints you are facing, or whatever financial goals you intend to set. By being completely honest about the bills and loans you have to pay, or your intention to save a certain amount of money for a family emergency fund (or a college fund, for that matter), you can help your family understand better your collective financial situation. This will allow them to change their perspective on purchases they make, and will help you make sure that whatever money crunching strategies you utilize won’t be counteracted by a subsequent spree by your teen.

Another good technique is to create a list of usual expenditures per member of your family. Together, identify which items you can do away with in order to save up some extra money from your monthly income. By doing this altogether, you are making your family participate better and see the contributions they can make into making your family’s finances better.

Should your child have the habit of continuously asking for money for minor and oftentimes unnecessary purchases, you can let your children learn to manage their own week’s allowance. With their limited money to budget, they will realize the value of money.

Put a cap on the amount of expenditures you make in a week. The best way to do this is set aside a fixed amount of cash that you will spend for a week. By putting this limitation on your spending, you are forced to prioritize spending on the most essential over other things.

Make it easy for your family to save more. How often do you eat out? Most family budgets are blown over because of the frequency of dining out and the accompanying exorbitant expense of that activity. Eating at home will reduce your expenses, not to mention allow for your family to bond over cooking at home. Do you spend on routine purchases like coffee and newspapers? Cut back on the latte and the paper, and put aside the amount you would otherwise spend. Your family’s collective saving will surprise you.

Lastly, don’t be afraid to create a most efficient driving route, as well as grouping together activities into one car trip. This way, you can save a lot on time and even on gasoline and car expenses.
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How You Can Get The Most Accurate, Real-Time Mortgage Rate Quotes Available

Feb 23

Posted by Real Estate Agent Referral Service - Thurston County Washington in Daily Real Estate & Mortgage News, Interest Rates, Mortgage Rates, Real Estate Definitions, Statistics | No Comments

Mortgage rates are expired before they hit the papers

You can’t get your mortgage rates from the newspaper. Last week proved it.  Again.

Friday morning, headlines in Washington State and around the country read that mortgage rates were down 0.04 percent, on average, since the week prior.

A sampling of said headlines includes:

  • US Mortgage Rates Drop For 2nd Straight Week (Reuters)
  • Mortgage Rates On 30-year US Loans Fall To 4.93% (Business Week)
  • 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate Falls Farther Below 5% (Marketwatch)

The story behind the headline was sourced from the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, am industry-wide mortgage rate poll of more than 100 lenders.  The PMMS has reported mortgage rate data to markets since 1971 and is the largest of its kind.

Unfortunately, Tumwater rate shoppers can’t rely on it.

See, unlike governments and private-sector firms, when consumers are in need mortgage rate information, they need the information delivered in real-time; for making decisions on-the-spot.  Consumers need to know what rates are doing right now.

The Freddie Mac survey can’t offer that.

According to Freddie Mac, the survey’s methodology is to collect mortgage rates from lenders between Monday and Wednesday and to publish that data Thursday morning.  The survey results are an average of all reported mortgage rates. The problem is that mortgage rates change all day, every day.  The PMMS results are skewed, therefore, by methodology.

And, meanwhile, the issue was compounded last week because mortgage rates shot higher Wednesday afternoon — after the survey had “closed”.  The market deterioration ran into Thursday, too — again, unable to be captured by Freddie Mac’s PMMS.

Although the newspapers reported mortgage rates down last week, they weren’t.  Conforming mortgage rates were higher by at least 1/8 percent, or roughly $11 per $100,000 borrowed per month.  In some cases, rates were up by even more.

Newspapers and websites can give a lot of good information, but pricing is far too fluid to rely on a reporter. When you need to know what mortgage rates are doing in real-time, make sure you’re talking to a loan officer.  Otherwise, you may just be getting yesterday’s news.

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Housing Starts Soar To 6-Month High In January… Or Do They?

Feb 19

Posted by Real Estate Agent Referral Service - Thurston County Washington in Daily Real Estate & Mortgage News, Housing Starts, Pending Home Sales, Statistics | No Comments

Housing Starts Feb 2008-Jan 2010

Sometimes, headlines for housing can be misleading and this week gave us a terrific example.

On Wednesday, the Commerce Department released its Housing Starts data for January 2010. The data showed starts at a 6-month high.

A “Housing Start” is a privately-owned home on which construction has started.

Headlines on the Housing Starts story included:

  • U.S. Housing Starts Hit 6-Month High (Reuters)
  • U.S. Economy Receives Home Building Boost (Shepparton)
  • Housing Starts Post Sharp Rebound (ABC)

Based to the headlines, the housing market looks poised for rapid growth through the Spring Market.

The real story, though, is that although Housing Starts increased by close to 3 percent last month, the growth is mostly attributed to buildings with 5 or more units.  This includes apartments and condominiums — a sector of the housing market that’s notoriously volatile.

If we isolate Housing Starts for single-family homes only, we see that starts grew by just 7,000 units last month and have failed to break a range since June 2009.  January’s tally is slightly below the 8-month average.

Perhaps more interesting than the Housing Starts, though, is the Commerce Department’s accompanying data for Housing Permits. After a 5-month plateau that ended in November, Housing Permits posted multi-year highs for the second straight month.

According to the Census Bureau, 82% of homes start construction within 60 days of permit-issuance.

One reason permits are up is that home builders want to capitalize on the federal homebuyer tax credit’s dwindling time frame.  Sales are expected to spike in March and April and more homes will come online to deal with that demand.  Home buyers in Olympia should shop carefully, but with an eye on the clock.

As the tax credit’s April 30, 2010 deadline approaches, competition for homes may be fierce.

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